Welcome to the April 2023 edition of THE TREASURY HUB Banking Markets Bulletin. There have been major developments in the banking markets internationally in recent months. This is discussed in section 5 of this month’s bulletin and will also feature in next months. This month we focus on international developments and how they may impact Irish banks. Next month we will review the 2022 financial results of the Irish banks.
Inflation and its impact on interest rate trends continues to dominate commentary. Central Banks have maintained their tightening actions across the board but the pace is abating and speculation continues around when such rates may peak.
- 3-month Euribor continues to climb in line with ECB Base Rates and is now above 3.0%. The last time that it was at this level was in December 2008
- All three yield curves (EUR, UK and US) are inverted after 1 year with the steepest drop being in US rates
- Oil and Carbon prices are both up again in 2023
- EUR/GBP has traded in a very tight range so far this year. EUR/USD had followed a similar path but USD is now being impacted upon by expectation of falling interest rates
- Stock markets are having a good year after a poor 2022
Markets are now firmly of the view that interest rates will peak in 2023, so the key variable is how long do rates stay at these heights before retreating? Lot of US rate variability as markets also grapple with the spectre of a possible recession.
Please get in touch with our Corporate Finance team if we can be of any assistance.
For any queries relating to this newsletter, please contact Chris Ball, Partner.