Welcome to the final 2025 edition of THE TREASURY HUB Markets Bulletin, providing a comprehensive review of developments across interest rate, foreign exchange, commodity and equity markets, together with an outlook for 2026. While markets experienced notable volatility in the first half of the year, conditions stabilised somewhat in H2 despite heightened geopolitical tensions. As 2025 progressed, market focus shifted away from inflation alone towards a broader mix of geopolitical, fiscal and structural factors.
This edition reviews key market movements over 2025 and highlights the themes likely to shape markets in 2026:
- The ECB cut its Deposit Rate four times in 2025, from 3.00% to 2.00%, with the final cut implemented by mid-year
- 3-month Euribor continued to fall in line with ECB policy and now appears to have reached the bottom of the current EUR interest rate cycle
- The EUR yield curve has normalised (upward sloping from 1 year), while UK and US curves remain distorted, suggesting further easing there in 2026
- Eurozone short-term rates have stabilised, while medium-term rates have begun to edge higher, reflecting longer-term fiscal and geopolitical pressures
- USD and GBP both weakened against the euro over 2025, with currency moves driven increasingly by political and geopolitical risks rather than rate differentials
- Oil prices were volatile in H1, briefly rebounded mid-year, and declined steadily in H2, ending the year close to USD60/bbl
- Gold was one of the standout performers of 2025, driven by geopolitical risk, central bank buying and concerns over equity valuations
- Equity markets delivered broadly positive returns, with the ISEQ and FTSE outperforming the NASDAQ, despite continued AI-related optimism in US markets
- Forward-looking indicators show mixed momentum, with Irish construction activity contracting while services remain resilient
The market narrative now extends well beyond the timing of interest rate cycles. Persistent geopolitical tensions, rising government debt, defence and infrastructure spending requirements, and structural economic challenges are increasingly shaping expectations. In Ireland, strong public finances contrast with significant long-term pressures related to housing, infrastructure, demographics and tax concentration risks.
As we move into 2026, forecasting remains challenging. Flexibility, prudent financing and scenario planning will be important as businesses and policymakers navigate an environment shaped by elevated geopolitical risk, fiscal pressures and evolving global economic conditions.
Contact Us
Please get in touch with our Corporate Finance team if we can be of any assistance.
The Treasury Hub Markets Bulletin - 2025 Review can be downloaded here .
Author
