Services

Banking Treasury Markets April 2023 927.51 KB

Welcome to the April 2023 edition of THE TREASURY HUB Banking Markets Bulletin. There have been major developments in the banking markets internationally in recent months. This is discussed in section 5 of this month’s bulletin and will also feature in next months. This month we focus on international developments and how they may impact Irish banks. Next month we will review the 2022 financial results of the Irish banks.

The Treasury Hub - May 22 909.18 KB

Welcome to the fifth edition of THE TREASURY HUB Banking and Treasury Markets Bulletin of 2022. The Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to impact on financial markets but there is a lot of volatility in other areas also since our bulletin last month:• Inflation is still a hot topic • Interest rates have steadied somewhat after a sustained period of increasing • Energy prices remain stubbornly high • FX rates have also bounced around a lot with USD making significant gains • Crypto currencies have taken a bashing • Tech stocks have also suffered more than most other sectors in 2022 • An oil company (Saudi Aramco) replaced Apple as the world’s largest company by market cap…. who said fossil fuels are a thing of the past?We have warned for some time in this bulletin that the key inflation metric to watch is food inflation given the impact of it on everyone and we see it as the main driver of wages hike pressures. Consumer habits will also change as a result and discretionary spend is already taking a hit with subscriptions to the likes of Netflix and Peloton being adversely impacted.Last month we stated that from a risk management perspective, it looks like the most volatile period in markets, financial and otherwise, since 2008 and, in some cases, since the 1970s. This is a view that we continue to hold.

The Treasury Hub - April 22 1020.11 KB

Welcome to the fourth edition of THE TREASURY HUB Banking and Treasury Markets Bulletin of 2022. This Bulletin represents a review of the first quarter of 2022 and in Section 5, we have a look at the implications of rising interest rates.The invasion of Ukraine by Russia continues to dominate financial markets along with inflationary pressures. The latter were already building before the invasion but have moved higher due to increasing energy prices in particular. While Oil prices remain high, Brent Crude has eased back to $108/barrel. There has however, been large volatility experienced in other commodity markets e.g. gas and nickel.Consumer confidence also seems to be taking a hit while faster and larger interest rate hikes are now increasingly mentioned due to the highest levels of inflation in decades. All of this is against a backdrop of a possible slowdown in economic activity, which can have a “double negative” impact on businesses: higher costs and lower sales/profits. In this scenario, financial covenant compliance in any loan agreements suddenly take on significance – see Section 5 for further analysis. From a risk management perspective, it looks like the most volatile period in markets, financial and otherwise, since 2008 and, in some cases, since the 1970s.

Treasury Hub - March 22 1.35 MB

Welcome to the March edition of THE TREASURY HUB Banking and Treasury Markets Bulletin. In this edition we review the past month and, in Section 5, we take a look at the 2021 results of the three main banks. The past few weeks have been dominated by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The resultant loss of life, physical destruction of the country and creation of a huge refugee crisis in Europe almost seems unimaginable. Talking about financial and economic matters is trite against that backdrop, but the event has and will have an impact on all of our lives to varying degrees in the weeks and months ahead. The impact of the crisis has been immediate in two areas: food and energy. Oil has jumped in price with Brent Crude hitting almost $140/barrel last week. Wheat has jumped from $850 to $1,252 in just over a week on the CBOT. And all of this will feed into inflation, slowing economic growth whilst also creating a dilemma for central banks and interest rate management. Adding the cost of the refugee crisis to the mix and assisting, hopefully, in the resolution of the conflict and the rebuilding of Ukraine, and 2022/23 will be challenging.

The Treasury Hub - January 2022 1022.69 KB

Welcome to the first edition of THE TREASURY HUB Banking and Treasury Markets Bulletin of 2022. This bulletin takes a look back at 2021 and in Section 5 we include our annual “trends to watch”.Key market movements in 2021 included inflation hitting highest levels seen in decades in some countries, which was fuelled by a significant increase in oil prices. In addition, interest rate hikes are now on the agenda for the first time in over a decade. Economic trends were broadly positive but funded by huge government borrowings and Central Bank stimulus. Despite the pandemic, labour markets are very tight across many geographies and stock markets have been driven up by the availability of cheap money. So who pays for this? And how will markets react to money supply starting to contract? In section 5 we discuss how the Irish Business Banking sector might look in 2022 and how the lack of competition may become an obstacle to businesses and consumers.

The Treasury Hub - November 2021 1.13 MB

This is the latest edition of THE TREASURY HUB Banking and Treasury Markets Bulletin of 2021. A lot has happened since the end of the Summer and it looks like it is going to be a busy run into Christmas and (most probably) a volatile start to 2022.Growing fears about the pace and scale of inflation globally has led to a re-assessment by the market of the prospects for long-term interest rates. In addition to this, Libor is disappearing for GBP loans from December 31st (so hopefully your documentation and systems are prepared!). Corporate activity remains buoyant with sellers continuing to achieve strong multiple of earnings across the majority of sectors.On the currency front, GBP has continued to strengthen and has recently dipped below 84p against EUR, bringing it back to where it started in the week or so after the Brexit vote in June 2016. USD has had an even better run and is over 8% lower (stronger) against EUR than it was at the start of the year. From an investment perspective, stock markets performed well over the Summer but have been jumpy over the past few weeks.Section 5 in this Bulletin looks at interest rates and inflation.